Why a ‘one-in-a-thousand-year’ flood could become the norm in Australia

Notwithstanding the Australian government’s sub-par climate policies, Australia has created a government agency for recovery and resilience, a disaster risk reduction framework, and national adaptation guidance.

The east coast of Australia is experiencing one of its worst floods in recent history. Catastrophic weather conditions over parts of south-east Queensland and the north coast of NSW have claimed at least 17 lives and have thrown regional cities such as Lismore into underwater disarray. This has brought heart-breaking consequences for individuals, families and small businesses. Brisbane alone seems to have witnessed more than 17000 of its homes and businesses damaged, after having experienced three days of rain over 200mm- the first time three consecutive days of such intense rainfall has been documented since 1841.

The scenes from these floods are devastating. Elderly people trapped in their homes and facilities, being floated to safety on boogie boards and boats supplied by ordinary citizens.

Livestock found swept away in flood waters, causing immeasurable losses to farmers already crippled by previous drought and floods. More than 35,000 First Nations peoples have been directly impacted by the floods, with some First nations communities, such as those living on Cabbage Tree Island near Ballina, NSW finding themselves abandoned on an inundated island.

And inevitably, along with these immediate impacts is the aftermath- the cost of rebuilding poorly funded communities, whose people have lost their jobs. Locals and emergency crews have displayed remarkable courage in the face of such a traumatic experience. A gargantuan task is now underway in Lismore, as residents try to pick up the pieces of what used to be their lives.

NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet described the flooding as a ‘one-in-a-thousand-year event’. However, it is a misconception to believe that this will only happen once in a thousand years and is therefore unforeseeable. Just last year in March, Sydney experienced flooding that was supposed to have been a one-in-a-hundred year event. Australia’s naturally occurring La Nina weather patterns- which have driven major flooding events in the past– have been higher than average this year. During a La Nina, winds blowing from east to west near the equator strengthen, which leads to a build-up of warm surface ocean water near Australia, bringing rainfall. Scientists also found an atmospheric river, a highway of water vapour within the first one to three kilometres of the atmosphere, perched over southern Queensland for days. This rainfall was foreseeable.

Additionally, human-induced climate change is making such extreme weather events worse. The floods hit the same week the Intercontinental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its latest report on the climate crisis, which warned we will experience increased extreme weather events, including floods, in a warmer world.

Climate projections suggest that eastern Australia may see a spike in extreme one-day rainfall events and flash flooding, while research from scientists at the University of Melbourne have indicated that climate change will cause long-lasting atmospheric rivers over Sydney to occur twice as often within this century.

Much like in the case of the 2019 Black Summer bushfires, climate change is exacerbating, and will continue to exacerbate, naturally occurring weather patterns. And while large fossil fuel companies such as Santos and Exxon are reaping the profits of burning fossil fuels, it is ordinary people and communities who are suffering the consequences.

Notwithstanding the Australian government’s sub-par climate policies, Australia has created a government agency for recovery and resilience, a disaster risk reduction framework, and national adaptation guidance. States and territories, as well as local governments and communities have recognised the importance of climate adaptation and have begun implementing adaptation strategies. However, these strategies have by-and-large been reactionary, rather than anticipatory.

What Australia needs is better integration and coordination amongst its various government levels. It needs climate policies that align with the findings from the latest climate science; influential thinktanks such as the Australia Institute are calling for a levy on fossil fuel exports, so that the companies who are contributing to these disasters help pay for the damage they cause. It needs a more consistent plan for implementing its adaptation strategies. And it needs inclusive, participatory ways of developing its policies that involve First Nations people and local communities, who bear the brunt of climate disasters.

Until this happens, the country will continue to bear witness to the bravery and altruism of ordinary people but stands unprepared for similar devastating weather events that are bound to occur into the future.