Climate Finance, a ‘Committed Injustice’; will COP 26 listen?

Situation demands to go beyond the business-as-usual actions, but the global leaders and corporates are still moving with myopic economic and political system.

“The current climate situation shows a pathway of at least 2.7-degree Celsius heating above preindustrial levels, and that’s obviously a one-way ticket for disaster. The carbon pollution of a handful of countries has brought humanity to its knees and they bear the greatest responsibility. The G20 leaders will meet in Rome, and they know their economies are responsible for four-fifth of planet carbon pollution. If they do not stand up, we are headed for terrible human sufferings. I hope we are still on time to avoid a failure in Glasgow, but time is running short, and things are getting more difficult and that is why I’m very worried. I’m afraid things might get wrong”, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres raised the concern judiciously while myopic corporates are operating recklessly from profiteering motive, but ultimate victims are the people, both driver as well as slayer of any civilization in the planet.

Global emissions to be 16% higher in 2030, UN warns.

Big polluters such as China, India, and Australia are yet to publish their climate change plans before CoP26. Earlier, sixth IPCC report in August 2021 provides compelling evidence of increasing trends in extreme weather, ocean warming, slow-onset events, and other climatic disruptions, exacerbating displacement risks faced by vulnerable populations who lack the means to adapt and prepare for these changes. Rapid abruption of the weather has triggered the loss and damages of already vulnerable people. A World Bank study in 2021 identified that in absence of the concrete climate and development actions climate change could lead more than 216 million people of the planet to migrate or internally displaced by 2050; and one-fifth (40 million) would be from South Asia. Bangladesh drives 37 percent (13.3 million) of the region’s projected climate migrants in the pessimistic reference scenario. Indeed, in Bangladesh, climate migration could outpace other internal migrations by 2050.

Internal Displaced Monitoring Center (IDMC) claimed that “nearly 1,900 disasters triggered 24.9 million new displacements across 140 countries and territories in 2019; and this is the highest numbers has been reported since 2012, three times higher the number of displacements caused by conflict and violence.

Bangladesh, China, India, and the Philippines together recorded more than 4 million disaster displacements. Much of the new displacement reported in 2019 took place in the form of pre-emptive evacuations. Cyclones Fani and Bulbul triggered more than five million in India and Bangladesh alone.” Evacuations clearly save lives, but many evacuees had their displacement prolonged because their homes had been damaged or destroyed. Here too, sustained development gains and lessening climate change impacts on highly densely populated vulnerable areas will be crucial. Fate of the climate victims is still uncertain as the UNHCR and IMO have opined that ‘Climate Refugees’ or ‘Environmental Refugees’ have no legal basis in international refugee law under the 1952 Refugee Convention (Biermann, F and Boas, I., 2008).

The number of forced climate-induced displacement could be reduced by as much as 80 percent if take immediate action to cut global GHG emission, robust and meaningful plan for each phase of migration (before, during and after) as preventive measure towards resilience, integrate climate migration into far-sighted green, resilient and inclusive development planning, and invest in understanding the drivers of climate migration through evidence-based research and consultations, to inform policy responses. Earlier the Executive Committee of the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage stressed for integrated approaches to averting, minimizing, and addressing displacement related to the adverse impacts of climate change. Earlier UN Task Force on Displacement (TFD) expressed continued support for the recommendations.

Considering the potential risks or gloomy fate of the climate induced displaced people, in CoP26 LDCs shall identify the policy/guideline along with a roadmap that reflects the importance of integrated approaches to avert, minimize and address displacement related to the adverse impacts of climate change. And in this respect, the broader context of human mobility, their respective human rights obligations and relevant legal issues and international standards should be considered duly. Ensure that adaptation, as well as loss and damage projects include and streamline relevant human mobility measures, such as resilience building for displaced populations and vulnerable migrants, facilitating community-wide planned relocation, access to pathways for admission and stay in cases of cross-border mobility, and assistance and durable solutions for displaced persons.

Immense humanitarian crises especially poverty has been increasing abruptly in both climate and Covid 19 affected vulnerable countries.

Situation demands to go beyond the business-as-usual actions, but the global leaders and corporates are still moving with myopic economic and political system.

In this context, there is no option to “facilitate orderly, safe, regular and responsible migration and mobility of people, in the context of climate change, considering the needs of migrants and displaced persons, communities of origin, transit and destination, and by enhancing opportunities for regular migration pathways, including through labour mobility, consistent with international labour standards, as appropriate”.

Moreover, CoP26 should declare roadmap grant-based climate finance for climate adaptation and resilience, to address loss and damages, building resilience and capacity buildings of the affected households, communities, and local actors G20 countries responsible for almost 80% of global carbon emission. To mobilize the funds to address loss and damages including displacement, G20 countries must declare to withdraw the public subsidy to fossil fuels and divert that amounts as grants to address loss and damages. Bangladesh should engage with LDCs and EU, USA to phase out $130 billion annual subsidy to fossil fuels and divert that fund for climate actions in vulnerable countries. At least 50% of the committed funds should be delivered directly to affected communities through using innovative funding mechanism. Provide a guideline to the Green Climate Fund for adopting immediate measures to avert, minimize and address loss and damage, and the extent to which they address displacement and other forms of human mobility. An independent, stand-alone legal protocol under the function and authority of the UNFCCC

To build capacities of the developing countries, as well as national, local, and civil society organizations, with guidance on how to access sustainable, adequate, and predictable financing to comprehensively integrate climate change-related human mobility. It was 2009, the developed countries promised to mobilize US$100 billion per year from 2020. However, till-to-date only around US$42 billion has been committed by the developed countries and out of them around 60% of the funds has been disbursed.

Developed countries have given one after another commitment in Copenhagen, Paris, and Madrid to mobilize US$100 billion per year, starting in 2020 and extending beyond 2025, ensuring balance between mitigation and adaptation. However, these unmet commitments are expediting the miseries of the already vulnerable people.

Though there is a question about proper measurement of climate finance considering “Rio marker’ “New and additional to ODA’, however, an estimate tells the bleak picture. As of 2021, adaptation received only 21 percent of climate financing. India, Indonesia, China, and Vietnam have together received 56% of the funding approved for Asia since 2003; and mitigation finance accounts for 62% of finance from the multilateral funds in the region (USD 3 billion), while adaptation projects and programs in the region receive only about a third or USD 1 billion of mitigation financing amounts.

While the loss and damages are intensifying the global climate finance is seen as peanut, climate finance seems the ‘promised climate injustice’.

As the disasters are intensifying adaptation costs will rise to US$140-300 billion annually in LDCs by 2030. Up to 2030 adaptation funds are estimated of around US$280 billion for Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, and Maldives, but received only US$5.9 billion of AF in LDCs during five-year period (2014-2018). Carbon market or carbon financing mechanism with other V20 mechanisms – potential to raise between US$1.37 billion and USD 4.5 billion.

CoP26 shall provide clear, time-bound, and meaningful grant-based (at least 50%) climate finance for both climate adaptation and resilience for developing countries for the period of 2022-2024.

All funding for LDCs should access to humanitarian and development funding outside the UNFCCC process for efforts to address human mobility associated with the adverse impacts of climate change, such as through multilateral funds, the Migration Multi-Partner Trust Fund, social protection safety nets, and anticipatory financing mechanisms. As Chair of CVF Bangladesh should lead to V20-led Accelerated Financing Mechanism including financial tools including access to market-based instruments such as bonds (blue, green, resilience) to reduce carbon emission. In collaboration with the CVF and LDCs Bangladesh will lead to form a Climate Actions Fund for Asia and Pacific (CAFAP) with the funds from GCF, AF, MDBs, Philanthropic and under which a meaningful and time-bound strategy and actions would be derived. Direct resources (e.g., funding, capacity building etc.) supports to Community-led Resilience (CLR) against all man-made and natural disasters will be more effective.

The victims are tired to hear the lucid words and nice speeches, unmet numerous pledges, but the leaders should be forward looking and leave the myopic behavior. If they really fail to deliver the expectations, they might have to face big, massive pressure from the victims.

Climate finance and sustainability analyst, serving as Executive Director of Change Initiative