Climate Crisis: We only have 12 years to save ourselves, let’s act fast!

The IPCC report that was prepared on the basis of an assessment of over 6000 recent scientific papers and documents, now clearly tells us that the Paris Climate Agreement – that wants to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius – is not enough.

The year 2018 can be termed historic in terms of realisation of the ‘catastrophic’ climate crisis we are in. Never in the past had we been warned of the consequences of not addressing climate change in such clear terms. The landmark 1.5 degrees Celsius special report (SR 1.5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), released in October 2018, has clearly warned us that we only have 12 years to save ourselves from catastrophic climate change. Yes, just 12 years!

The SR 1.5 report

This is a big cause of worry for our cities as well as a huge opportunity for them to take action. We are in a climate emergency that needs ‘unprecedented’ actions. The IPCC report that was prepared on the basis of an assessment of over 6000 recent scientific papers and documents, now clearly tells us that the Paris Climate Agreement – that wants to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius – is not enough. In 2015, governments agreed at Paris to keep global warming “well below” 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and to strive for a 1.5 degree limit. The SR 1.5 that was commissioned to understand the impacts of a 1.5 degrees Celsius rise as against the 2 degrees Celsius, projects that a 2°C rise in the global average temperature would lead to worse global and regional climate impacts. For example, limiting warming to 1.5ºC rather than 2ºC could result in 420 million fewer people being exposed to severe heatwaves.  Further, this half degree difference could help us prevent corals – one of the most vital carbon sinks – from being completely lost and could ease pressure on the Arctic. Most importantly, most of our actions are needed to be taken by 2030. It is possible to limit the global temperature rise to below 1.5ºC, says the IPCC report, however it requires unprecedented transitions in all aspects of society. 

The world – especially the poor and vulnerable communities – is facing the wrath of climate change impacts under the current 1.2 degree Celsius warming situation. 

The year 2018 has already been considered a climate change tipping point.  The number and impacts of extreme weather events have been increasing and this year, even as the world governments – during the climate negotiations at COP 24 at Katowice – succumbed to pressure of countries like USA and Saudi Arabia to undermine the importance of the SR 1.5, extreme events caused severe damages to the economy of countries as well as that of the people living in vulnerable pockets of the world.

A report, counting only 10 most extreme disasters that hit the world that year, pegged the total loss caused by these events at $110 billion.  These disasters include hurricanes, floods, wildfires and droughts. 

The Kerala floods, that got listed in this report by the UK based charity, Christian Aid, is said to have caused death of more than 500 people and displaced more than a million people. The heavy rainfall that Kerala experienced was highest in 80 years and caused a damage of nearly $5 million, the report pegs. According to data released by the Centre of Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, extreme weather had already caused death of approximately 5,000 people by first week of December 2018. By that time, according to this report, more than 28.9 million had needed emergency assistance or humanitarian aid because of extreme weather.  Researches have also pointed out that economic losses caused due to climate-related disasters have increased by as high as 151 percent in the last two decades. There is absolutely not an iota of doubt about the fact that we need urgent and unprecedented actions to save ourselves from the climate crisis we are in. The SR 1.5 estimates that to stay below this temperature guard of 1.5°C, the world has to cut net anthropogenic CO2 emissions by 45 percent over the 2010 levels by 2030, and reach net zero by 2050. Cities can lead this action.

The SR 1.5 and cities

More than fifty percent of the world’s population now live in urban areas and that’s going to grow substantially especially in the small to medium cities in the developing world. It is estimated that more than two-third of people will move to urban areas by 2050, causing severe hardships to the small and medium scale cities in countries like India. This would also mean serious efforts to combat emissions from the urban areas. As the demand for more housing and other infrastructure increases, the emissions from shrinking natural places (deforestation) and grey infrastructure will make our urban areas climate hotspots.

The SR 1.5 identifies cities and urban areas as one of four critical global systems that can accelerate and upscale climate action, but recognizes this will require major transitions in how both mitigation and adaptation are undertaken.

Migration from rural areas to cities, caused by increased distresses due to climate change, could exponentially increase in a 2.0°C scenario compared to 1.5°C scenario.  Migration from already marginal agriculture-dependent communities could increase as temperatures rise and water stress increases, says the SR 1.5. The overall global population suffering water scarcity at 2.0°C is projected to be double at 1.5°C. That means the cities will have to face graver challenges in accommodating them. Swelling slums and informal settlements are already a big worry for the cities.  The SR 1.5 estimates that keeping the temperature rise to 1.5°C would mean a reduction of population exposed to climate risks and related poverty by as much as 457 million.  

2019 the defining year

Cities and governments at all levels have to take the IPCC report seriously and need to start both mitigation and adaptation efforts. Cities across the globe have already started progressive actions. The impacts of climate change will vary from region to region, making it mandatory for the actions to be localised in sync with the 1.5°C commitments that each city needs to plan without any further delay.

One thing that I have been propagating aggressively in this column as well as in my campaigns, and that the SR 1.5 has also endorsed, is building ‘nature-based solutions’ in cities as well as neighbourhood ecosystems that support the cities in their water, food and related requirements. 

I would sincerely urge upon our city authorities, state governments, national government, civil societies and other stakeholders to explore ways to support ‘nature-based solutions’ by promoting forest and water conservation actions with complete involvement of local people. Urban dwellers, as I have always argued, should not only be considered as ‘tax payers’ and ‘consumers’. They are citizens first and they have a responsibility towards making their cities climate resilient.  Cities must demarcate at least 33 percent of their geographies as forest zones and integrate natural sponges all across the city limits. This will help them fight the extreme precipitation caused floods and water scarcity both. 

Further, there is an urgent need to build city-village collaborations in which cities can pay for regeneration of natural forests and water bodies in their neighbourhood and in shared watersheds. That will have far reaching impacts on local food and water security, and also aid India’s Paris commitments. We need to break the conventional barriers of narrow planning domains and move towards more inclusive and dynamic approaches such as this. 

This article was first published in Urban Update